Morgan Stanley, an international financial services company, believes that the global economy in 2021 will show the following three characteristics:

1. Synchronous recovery of the global economy

Morgan Stanley believes that the growth rate of the global economy in 2021 will be 6.4% in 2021, which is higher than the market consensus of 5.3%. Morgan Stanley said the news of vaccines and antibody treatments supports this position. It is more optimistic about the global economic recovery than the market consensus is because the company believes that the impact of the new crown virus has not significantly suppressed the risk appetite of the private sector, and policy stimulus has proven to be more than just a backing. Therefore, the company believes that the global economy is recovering simultaneously. The last time it appeared in 2017, it will continue in 2021.

2. Emerging market economies boarded the inflation express Emerging markets will change in 2021.

Emerging market countries have been effective in containing the new crown virus, and the momentum of economic recovery is increasing. In 2021, the U.S. current account deficit continues to expand, the U.S. real interest rate is low, the U.S. dollar weakens, and China’s deflationary impulse and the loose domestic macro policies of emerging market countries outside China will lead to a sharp rebound in economic growth.

3. Changes in the inflation mechanism

Morgan Stanley said it sees a completely different inflation dynamics being formed, especially in the United States. Although it was advocated earlier this year that inflation should return in this cycle, it will lay the foundation for this theme in 2021. In 2021, the US economy will reach the level before the global pandemic of the new crown virus and return to the path of development before the global pandemic of the new crown virus. In Morgan Stanley’s view, the US inflation rate may change from 2. This may challenge the market’s perception of inflation and cause a subversive change in Fed policy expectations. An unexpected upward movement began in the second half of 021, especially if a huge fiscal package was obtained. Compared with Morgan Stanley’s optimistic forecast of the world economy in 2021, the IMF (International Monetary Fund) forecast is much more cautious. According to the latest forecast of the IMF World Economic Outlook in October 2020, the global economy will shrink by 4.4% in 2020 , The global economy will grow by 5.2% in 2021. If this prediction is correct, then the global economy will achieve a V-shaped recovery in 2021. However, even so, the high economic growth in 2021 is also due to the low base in 2020, and the global economic aggregate in 2021 will only return to the level of 2019.

However, there is still great uncertainty as to whether the world economy can reach the 5.2% predicted by the IMF, because the premise of the IMF’s forecast is that the epidemic will be effectively controlled in the second half of 2020. It seems that this goal cannot be achieved at present. In addition to the epidemic, there are other uncertain factors that will affect the world economy next year.